Software Engineering Laboratory, Department of Computer Science

Year 2000 Issues

Or "Waiting for the Second Shoe to Drop"
... and the shoe dropped very softly :-):-):-)
[Notice] [Back to Portal] [Cynics] [It's Y2k, NOT Y2K] [IEEE Standard for Year 2000 Terminology] [PC Y2000 Alliance]


General

Hardware Compliance Software Compliance
Science Examples
Virus Protection


What am I to do?

[GSA Best Practice] [IEEE Recommended Practice] [Commone Sense]
  • "Don't Panic!". Get informed about the problem using knowledgable, reliable and reputable sources. Beware of con-artists, self-proclaimed experts (no matter how well they manipulate the Y2k jargon), and both well meaning and not-so-well-meaning panick-brokers and doom predictors! Web, and many other sources (including bookstores), is full of inaccurate, incomplete and market-driven overly pessimistic information and materials about Y2k events that may not be true at all, or have a very low probability of happening. A large number of "doomsday Y2k experts" that "air" their opinions over the networks and in various other information outlets have no appropriate computer science or computer engineering training, do not really understand the basic issues, or have ulterior motives. Those that do understand the underlying technological issues invariably have reasonable views and predictions, and do not forsee major perturbations, if any, beyond the failures and pain that computers and software give us on a daily basis in any case :-).

    FRAUD ALERT

    On the other, hand, you should not be complacent, and you should not totally ignore the issue. "A stich in time ... ", etc. So,

  • Be Aware. You need to know there is a potential problem before you can fix it. It may be that there is no problem to fix.
  • Inventory. Count and record everything that may have software or computer chip associated with it, or that depends on one! Do walk throughs to make sure you don't miss anything.
  • Backup. If you have a computer, back-up all its content regularly. Find software licenses and original diskettes/CDROMs (or copies) so that you can re-load the operating system or software, if the necessity arises.Unless you are running from a stand-alone diskette/boot, DO NOT "fastforward" dates on your computer BEFORE backing-up the system. You could cause application and license damage that may not be reversible.
  • Research & Evaluate. Use Web, contact vendors, other resources to determine if your hardware/software is compliant. Run compliance tests.
  • Fix. Address (mission) critical items first. Create prioritized (risk) list of things to fix.
  • Plan for Contingencies (Risk Management). Create a risk management plan, a plan on how to address emergencies that may arise, how to proceed if your fixes do not work, and what your alternatives are. Do this early, do not leave it for the last minute. If you have to cut corners, the plan should have in it where to cut and what the potential impact/cost of a short-cut or a failure to fix is. Plan workarounds and backup strategies.


Risks

Area
(with related Notes, Sources & Opinions) 		Y2k Risk as of 7/28/99
(Risk Definitons and Scale)
LOW to MEDIUM (trend towards low)

COMPUTERS
Personal computers?
(please check the table above entitled "GENERAL")

Start tracking problem behavior of your software and/or computing system between NOW and 31-Dec-99. Record all failures, problems and undesirable behaviors (time/date when they happen, brief description & cirmstances, duration of the downtime or recovery time, fixes, impact, include reboots due to software freezing or misbehaving, crashes, just nusance failures, your own mistake, communication/modem failures, etc.). Find failure rate by dividing the total number of failures by the total time (e.g., days) over which you are tracking. This will give you an idea how often your system fails as part of the "pre-Y2k" behavior. Keep track of how often you use date-sensitive applications. Make sure those are Y2k compliant. How many of the "pre-Y2k" problems your experience are date related? How often do they happen?

This PC risk and impact assessment assumes absence of Y2k viruses, and lack of deliberate Y2k related security attacks. It also excludes the pre-existing software, hardware and failure conditions, i.e., software and PCs fail regulary for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with Y2k.

An active Y2k compliance evaluation and risk/threat resolution and mitigation is needed on the part of the owner. BACKUP your system THOROUGHLY & FREQUENTLY!

Apple/Macintosh NONE to LOW (there is no hardware or operating system problem, but application software may still have problems of its own).
Unix boxes and software manufactured since 1997 LOW to NONE (you need to check for compliance)
PCs and software manufactured since 1997 LOW (you must check for compliance)
Embedded Chips (microcontrollers and microprocessors) - for embedded computer-controlled systems see under computer type that provides control.
LOW (but you must check for compliance, especially if you suspect a chip-generated date is being used to make decisions - the latter is very unlikely in microcontrollers, perhaps 1 in 100,000, and more likely in microprocessors, perhaps 2% to 7% of the microprocessors could be affected)
Unix boxes and software manufactured before 1997 MEDIUM (you must check for compliance)
PCs and PC Software Manufactured before 1997 MEDIUM to HIGH
(you absolutely must check for compliance)
Poorely, inexpertly, or unprofessionally executed Y2k fixes UNKNOWN (If Y2k software change activities follow the usual industrial software development trends, then as much as 25% of the Y2k fixes could result in new maintenance bugs that will linger on for years. This could be a real problem, be very careful what you download from the Web, or who you let work on your system or application - download/deal only from/with reputable sites and vendors!)
Y2k related Computer Viruses, and other deliberate Security attacks and threats (via network, via "backdoors", via trojan horses, via "Y2k-fixit" tools, etc.)? UNKNOWN (could be a real problem, be very careful what you download from the Web, or who you let work on your system or application - download/deal only from/with reputable sites and vendors!)

COMMUNITY in General
Risk assesments presented here, assume at least the present level of ACTIVE and CONTINUED risk awareness, assessment, tracking, resolution and mitigation on the part of all involved parties.
NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW to NONE
LOW
    Air Traffic (by the way, air navigation works on Greenwich Mean Time, five hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Standard Time at the end of the year. The "critical" hour is 7 p.m. not midnight in whatever zone one is :-).
NONE to Very LOW
LOW
LOW to MEDIUM (trend is towards LOW)
LOW
MEDIUM to HIGH (trend is towards MEDIUM)
UNKNOWN (It varies. "Western" countries are probably in the low to medium range, the rest of the world ranges from low to high. However, the impact will also depend on industrial level of the country and the level of automation/computerization of its industry and services. The most critical are the countries with high level of computer use, such as "Western Europe", Japan, Australia, etc. Those seem to be in a quite reasonable shape.

It is unlikely that the carryover IMPACT on the USA will be more than LOW).


LOCAL Community
LOW
LOW
LOW


Miscellaneous Links



"Waiting for the Second Shoe to Drop" 		NCSU-SEL Y2k (Version 1.5.1/Last Modified 01/01/00 )
Contact: M. Vouk, E-mail: vouk@csc.ncsu.edu , Tel: 919-515-7886, Fax: 919-515-6497, Department of Computer Science, Box 8206, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA